Poker analysis

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Since the beginning of June I’ve been aggressive about tracking my hands as I played $.50/$1 limit holdem, and I think my numbers are good, though my earning rate is a little low.  Here’s my analysis through the evening of June 15th.

I had an excellent session last week, playing 200 hands of $.5/$1 and winning $40.  Here’s my analysis.

Table stats: Avg. pot: $5.71, Average saw flop % for whole table: 28.25%, Avg. players per hand: 9.4

My stats: VP$IP: 22%, Saw flop (not a blind): 15.48% of the time, went to showdown 35.56%, won $ at showdown 81.25%, won $ when saw a flop: 44.44%

Here’s some breakdown of my play.

Small blind
I played nine hands from the small blind.  AQs, AKo, QJs, and A5s were appropriate.   J5s, T6s, and 95s were a waste of a half a bet.  I played 87o with only one caller in, and I should have really had three in, so that was loose.  96o was raised when it was just me and the big blind, and he folded.

Early position: I played AKo twice and KQs.  No junk was played.

Middle position: 87s was played, which is a little weak for the table, but it flopped a flush and worked out.  I also played AKo, AJo, ATs, A6s, A4s, A3s, KQs, JTs, JJ, TT, T9s, 99, and 88.   I played all the Aces with appropriate odds, which is an improvement in my game.  I also handled my "first in" situations, raising or folding appropriately.

Late position: I played 15 hands here, which is not a lot, and I folded my button quite a bit.  The loosest play I made was to play A6o in the cutoff to try and steal the blinds.    The small blind called me, and even bet out the flop.  I had to raise the flop and bet the turn after he checked before he folded.

I played K8s and 33 without the requisite 4 callers in already, and of course I lost those hands.

And now, the hand of the session:

Last night’s $.5/$1 session was good, though sleepiness took away some of the gains I made early in the session, I still came out ahead yesterday.  Here’s the blow by blow.

136 hands, VP$IP: 16.91%, Won $ when saw the flop: 26%, Saw flop (not a blind): 15%, Went o showdown: 44%, won money at showdown: 46.6%

Small blind: played AQo, A3o, KTo, and Q3s.  Although the Q3s and the A3o were weak hands, I called them with odds, at least according to Hilger, and got away from them when they didn’t hit anything.

Early position: ATs and KQo.  These hands were ok, but the ATs was an underdog on the flop I flopped a 10 but no Ace, and yet I kept drawing to hit.  In multiway pots, I need to learn to let these go, because I may not be good even when my Ace hits.

The KQo flopped a rag board with a pair and two suits.  Because the pot was so big, I paid a bet to keep drawing, not realizing that with that many people in, the flushes were out there, as well as the trips.  My goal of drawing to top pair was without a doubt going to be at least second or third best hand.  Definately should have folded it.

Middle position: AKo, AJs, AJo, ATs, A4s, KQo, 88, 22.  I broke the rules and raised the AJo from middle position, betting hard on the flop and turn and taking down the pot before the river.  Hilger says to raise it only if you’re first in, but the table was a little short (7 players) so I deviated and it paid off.  I also raised my 88 preflop, and blew 2.5 big bets on that adventure as well.

Late position: I played 7 total hands: AKo, AQo, ATs, KTo, QTo (from the button), TT, and T9s.  The tens I should have raised preflop.  The ATs (hand below) was a dream hand.  The best part about it is that I knew I was beat by a flush on the turn, but assuming I was going to get at least one bet on the river, I had the odds to draw to my four potential outs for my full house.  Little did I know that one of my aces was dead already, making my draw statistically unlikely given the amount in the pot.

Katie said I could post her key hand from the World Series event she played in: $1,500 Limit Hold ’em. It is of course the heartbreak hand, pocket Aces. She was somewhat saddened to see several TV pros at her table, but did her best anyway.  I’m really proud of her.

The single largest factor in my play from last night was the dreaded hand, AQ, dealt to me in early position.  Even suited, it’s still a tricky hand to play unless you can predict the behavior of the other players at your table well enough.  I may actually fold it if I get it in early in a session before I have a read on the general mood of the table.

Here’s my totals from last night.

151 hands played, saw the flop (not a blind) 13.68%.  Voluntarily put $ in the pot 16.56%.

Can you tell?  I had crap for cards.  For limit, these numbers are low, I think.

Early position: played AQs, AQo, and ATs.  No junk was played.  (Hey, I’m getting better)

Middle position: AKo, AQo, and ATs.  No junk was played.

Late position: AJo, ATs, ATo, A5s, A4s, KQo, K8s, J7o, TT, 87s, 55, and 22.  I played the K8s without sufficient callers (I needed 4, but I only had 2 plus the blinds).  Bad bad. 

The J7o was the original posted bet to enter before my blind, but I made the mistake of calling a raise because it was one more bet and I had position.  The extra bet was a waste, and position is obviated by people at this level who can’t lay down AA or KK to a scary board.  I gotta learn not to do that.

Small blind: In the small blind I played T5o, A9s, QJs, 98s, and 74s.   As you imagine, I consider the T5o and the 74s to be wanton wastes of money.

I’m generally playing without Matthew Hilger’s book in front of me, which accounts for my deviations from normally solid starting hands, to try and hone my instincts about what starting hands do well.  For this session I had three instances of junk hands out of 151.