I’m doing some math modeling of hand equity of various hands with pokerstove. What happens to JJ at a table when someone raises,and you’ve got 2, 3, 4 players? What if they’re solid players? What if one is a complete donk? Does the hand have a positive or negative expected value?
If you were doing a player model, would you use these profiles? Remember, this is casino $3/$6, the lowest level of limit hold’em offered.
- TT+ (tens or better);
- ATs+ (Ace-Ten-suited up through Ace-Jack-suited); and
- KJs, KQs, AQo, AKo, and KQo
Typical caller of said raiser:
- 22+; (any pair, in the hopes of flopping a set)
- A2s+ (any suited ace for a flush or two pair);
- 54s (all suited connectors bigger than 54 for a straight or baby flush); and
- ATo+ (all Aces with a ten kicker or better, hoping I’m raising with a small ace or KK-TT)
And just for good measure, when I’m doing the math for callers, I’m assuming that the fifth caller of the raise is a complete donk, and will call with the following hands:
- 22+ (any pair);
- A2s+ or A2o+ (any ace, suited or unsuited, with any crappy kicker);
- 32s+ or 32o+ (any connector, suited or not); and
- K2s+, Q2s+, and J2s+ (any suited piece of junk hoping for a flush).
Do I need to tell you that the "complete" donk profile is a negative expected value play?
Are there some bad habits of low limit players you know of that I should include in this math? (I mean, besides obsessively playing 72 for show value.)