7 card stud analysis, 1,000 hands

So, 14 hours into this experiment, what have I learned?

  1. I lose money with one pair, and I seem to show it down more often than I probably should.  I appear to pay a river bet almost half the time, which is absurd once you see my stats.
  2. I have previously played high pairs against someone with a pair on the board, hoping to catch a second pair and beat their two pair.  This appears to be losing me money either when I don’t catch a second pair, or when they have trips or better.  So I won’t pay to draw to that anymore.
  3. I start winning money with two pair, winning money 36% of the time I show this hand down.  I don’t need stats to know that I’ve got a leak in playing 2 pair down to the end when I can see a higher potential pair on an opponent’s board.  (For example I have QQ99, and my opponent is showing AK82 on his board and betting hard.)  In this case, if I have him read for two pair, I’m drawing dead and paying for it.
  4. My big jump is when I hit trips.  I win with 2 pair 36% of the time, but I win with trips 84% of the time.  While that is exaggerated by the poor opponents I have, that’s a meaningful jump even if it’s half right.
  5. When I have a wired or a split pair and I raise/complete on 3rd street, I make three times more money than I do if I don’t raise.
  6. I appear to have a decent overall sense of when to bail on the hand.  I attribute this to the fact that at this level, I may be the only one reading the board cards of my opponents.  Here’s a little Pokertracker chart that shows that I am more likely to win money if I proceed in a hand.
  • % chance to win money if I see 4th street: 31.45%
  • % chance to win money if I see 5th street: 35.71%
  • % chance to win money if I see 6th street: 42.99%
  • % chance to win money if I see 7th street: 42.72%
  • % chance to win money if I see showdown: 43.88%

Clearly I’m not just calling anything and everything down.  But I do intend to start folding a little more, which ought to drop the % chance I’ll see later streets, while upping my % chance of winning money.

It’s a learning process.

That’s a lot of learning for now.  I need time to adjust my game to these empirical facts.