Playing patient or flipping a coin
Matt Matros is one of the poker writers I enjoy reading the most. His recent analysis of why you should push in with a pair of Queens early on in the tournament against someone holding Ace-King is smart. Here’s the gist:
You wade through all the railbirds and all the media and finally locate
your seat. Just as you do, the tournament director announces, “Shuffle
up and deal!” It’s your big blind, and you toss two of your green chips
onto the felt. You’ve now got $9,950 in chips in your stack. Everyone
folds around to the small blind, who shoves all in for $10,000. You
haven’t even taken your chip protector out of your pocket yet, but you
figure you probably won’t need it on this hand. You’re going to fold,
unless you look down at aces. But there’s a problem. The small blind
doesn’t have a protector on his cards, either, and when he looks down
at them one more time, he accidentally exposes his hand. He has the A K.
You look down at your hand, and find two black queens. You’ve done your
research. You know you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you
call. But should you?
However I’m not smart enough to implement this, because I can’t know for
sure the guy is holding Ace-King. If he’s holding Aces, or Kings, I’m
an underdog. Overall though, my game has improved significantly because of Matt’s analysis.